The Kentucky Derby is less than a week away, and the Run for the Roses is shaping up for a wide-open race in 2019. While lovers and amateur race bettors focus on the favorites, the expert bettors and players interested in a much better payoff believe this is going to be the year that a favorite doesn’t win the Kentucky Derby.
KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS AND POST POSITIONS Post positions and opening odds were published on Tuesday morning. The first 20-horse field of 3-year-olds was made up from the Best 20 points earners during the 35 Derby prep races from September through April leading up to the Kentucky Derby on May 4.
Two horses — Omaha Beach and Haikal — were scratched this past week. Bodexpress replaced Omaha Beach from the field.
Betting Odds Offered by TVG (Click here to get $20 Free, just for signing up!) BETTING THE KENTUCKY DERBY
What’s the Kentucky Derby such a great wagering prospect? Beyond being a significant event and the biggest 3-year-old race on the planet, the Derby is stacked with a 20-horse field. Therefore a big gaming pool with a lot of uniform money is bet on the Kentucky Derby.Now while the favorites have won the previous six runnings of the Run for the Roses, those favorites have paid out pretty nicely between $6.60 and $12.80 on a $2 win wager. But it’s the opportunity for a huge exacta, trifecta or superfecta score which brings more bettors out for the Derby.
When preferred Always Dreaming won in 2017, a $2 exacta with Lookin’ At Lee (33-1) returned 336.20. A $1 trifecta with Battle of Midway (40-1) in 3rd returned 8,297.20. And a $1 superfecta with Vintage Empire (6-1) at 4th paid $75,974.50.
Thus, a big score is possible from the Derby, and many recreational bettors will miss the potential midrange or lengthy shots with some potential and value to hit the board.
ALSO READ: Exacta? Trifecta? How To Get Exotic At The Kentucky Derby
2019 KENTUCKY DERBY RUNNERS AND CONTENDERS
These three horses will require the maximum wagering activity and among them will go off as the Kentucky Derby preferred:
Roadster: First place in Santa Anita Derby
Game Winner: Second place in Santa Anita Derby, Champion at 2-year-old and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Improbable: Second Arkansas Derby
The next wave of contenders includes the other four leading prep winners:
Tacitus: First Wood Memorial
Maximum Security: First Florida Derby
Vekoma: First Blue Grass
By My Standards: First Louisiana Derby
The rest of the two-thirds of the Derby field will provide some potential for a large score. Remember in the 2017 Kentucky Derby, Always Dreaming won with a clean trip and good post on a sloppy track, but super longshots at 33-1 and 40-1 finished second and third to activate big exotic payouts.
Plus Que Parfait: First UAE Derby
Code of Honor: Third Florida Derby
War of Will: Ninth Louisiana Derby
Cutting Humor: First Sunland Derby
Tax: Second Wood Memorial
Win Win Win: Second Blue Grass
Country House: Third Arkansas Derby
Extended Range Toddy: Sixth Arkansas Derby
Spinoff: Second Louisiana Derby
Gray Magician: Second UAE Derby
Master Fencer: Second Fukuryu Stakes (Japan)
KENTUCKY DERBY RECENT HISTORY
The 2019 Kentucky Derby will have the largest purse in the Derby’s 145-year history of $3 million. The race-day favorite at post time has won the Kentucky Derby six years in a row, such as in 2018 if Justify won the Run for the Roses in his solution to Triple Crown glory. American Pharoah (2015) was also a Triple Crown winner, snapping the extended 37-year drought without a Triple Crown winner.KENTUCKY DERBY TIPS
Beyond having some places to wager on the Kentucky Derby like best online sites TVG, TwinSpires and BetAmerica, start looking for sportsbooks that provide more Derby betting alternatives like head-to-head matchup wagering. As more lawful sports novels enter the market in the US, such as FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet, you will also see these sportsbooks get creative and supply special offerings and promotions on big events such as the Kentucky Derby.
In handicapping and preparing for the Kentucky Derby, you’ll be more informed and have a better chance to win if you follow some basic hints from experts like Mike Shutty; writer of Super Screener and creator of Horse Racing Nation.
Learn to project the speed of the race
Form cycle analysis — look at contenders type cycle
Workout analysis — last workouts before Derby
While we wait patiently for its Derby draw, closing workouts and track state, some early indications are that a horse in mid chances like Tacitus is clearly effective at winning the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Longshots such as Spinoff or Maximum Security can’t be ruled out on the triumph or Top 3 finish, while By My Standards is just another potential underneath type horse that could offer a big payoff even if the proposed preferred Roadster were to continue advancement and operate well to triumph.
Mike Smith, who street Justify to a Kentucky Derby success and Triple Crown achievement, has opted to ride Omaha Beach rather than Roadster.