Seven teams got beat by double digits at Week 1 and we are watching overcorrection of odds and inflated spreads due to the overreaction that is immediate for Week two. But over the previous five seasons, the teams that got wrecked by 10 points or more have now covered of the time in Week 2.
There have been 34 instances of teams losing from double-digit points in Week 1 and their album will be 21-12-1 ATS for Week two. That listing seemed so dubious I had to double-check the effect myself from our stats man (shout-out to Will!) .
See the table under Possible angles you could use for Week 2 and that exemplifies this tendency:
As you can see, that the ATS percentage does not change much based on the sample size of the last few seasons, last year and the last five seasons. Now, this isn’t me saying to take out another mortgage and place it about the Dolphins +19??spread vs the Patriots but there is some merit to throwing a bounce-back from groups at Week two by them keeping games close or winning (52.9% over past five decades ).
The seven groups that lost in Week 1 by 10 points or more would be the Dolphins, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars, Falcons, Giants and Buccaneers.
We wouldn’t be an authority on chances and trends if we didn’t at least look at the flip side and see how teams do after crushing an opponent. According to the past five seasons, both teams which won by 10 points or more in Week 1 have covered 45.5 percent of their matches in Week 2.
View the table below for the last three seasons, 2018 and past five seasons:
There is a regression from those winners who is probably because opposing defenses have and they won’t be caught off guard like Week 1 victims as evidenced in the table over.
It is also because of inflated spreads which are probably not an actual representation of the way those teams are ATS. For reference, the seven groups that won by 10 points or more in Week 1 are the Titans, Chiefs, Ravens, Vikings, Cowboys, 49ers and Patriots.
To see the latest betting odds for Week 2, take a look at our NFL Odds Page.