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BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 9 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a great deal of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will try to receive my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $25k decoration, then I will probably take a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Macy Chiasson — $9,400
Macy Chiasson is undoubtedly the safest play on the board and she also has 100+ point upside. She’s a lock in my money matches this week and I actually don’t really see how she loses. I believe a entry could be Moras’ best opportunity but she is not capable of getting the battle to the ground, so that I see her becoming dominated on the feet until the ref measures. She is by far my favourite play at the 9k range and she’s a -750 on the betting line. I enjoy playing with it safer in cash games and I believe she is a secure win this week.
GPP play of the week — Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is an easy one for me this week and he’ll be the chalk of this week. I’ll continue to be obese on Merab though. His style is exactly what we want on DraftKings. He has a nonstop speed and he shoots for takedowns very often. He has 22 landed takedowns in his first 3 UFC fights and that is his best route to success in this matchup too. Even with two losses on his album from these 3 conflicts, he averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This is not my GPP play of the week because I know he is going to win, I just know IF he wins that he will score highly, and he needs to easily reach value on an $8.6k price tag.
Underdog drama of the week — Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone — $7,800
I must select Cowboy as the dog of the week. His struggles are always action packed and the winner of the fight will surely be on the first-place lineup. Particularly if it is Cowboy. He almost always scores over 100 points in his wins and he’s 5-rounds to work with here. I don’t find a circumstance in which he wins and doesn’t wind up on the 25k lineup. I will be overweight on Cowboy this week, but this is an all-in fight for me. If Cowboy isn’t in one of my lineups, then you will see Iaquinta there. I’m thicker on the Cowboy side though and I believe he gets the job done by submission.
Fade of this week — Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be very surprised to see Theodorou about the 1st location lineup this week. I would be amazed to see him get even 10x his $8k price tag and that’s why I have zero lineups with him this week. Not counting his fight with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins before that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is just not good for DraftKings. He is going to need to knock Brunson out if he is going to score tremendously and that he is not a power puncher. I believe you are better off carrying Elias by TKO on the betting line in +870. I really don’t see any reason to invest in him this week at GPPs because he doesn’t have the ceiling we would like to win that big $25k. I believe he’s fine in money games because a 65-point win would not kill us there. However he is an easy fade of this week for me this Saturday.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and also provide my entire DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 71-45 for +233.79u (+$23,379) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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