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NASCAR at Richmond odds, picks 2019: Model says Kyle Larson surprises at Toyota Owners 400

For first time this season, NASCAR will probably be under the lights when the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch enters 2019 NASCAR in Richmond as the pioneer in the NASCAR Dragon Energy Cup standings with 361 points. He is looking for his fourth win of this year along with the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 chances give him a 9-4 chance to get it starts in fifth place after qualifying. Kevin Harvick had the fastest pace in qualifying at 124.29 MPH, giving him the pole position. His NASCAR at Richmond chances have moved out of 7-1 to 9-2. Martin Truex Jr. (6-1), Joey Logano (8-1) and Brad Keselowski (10-1) are one of the other top contenders in this .75-mile brief track. Before bending in any 2019 Toyota Owners 400 selections of your own, first make certain to have a look at the NASCAR predictions in the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive data scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 occasions, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The version is off to a solid start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin a top-four competition from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers in the Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano at its projected top . Additionally, it nailed Busch’s huge win at Bristol a week. Anybody who has followed its selections is way up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in iconic venues like Richmond Raceway are in his bloodstream. His model simulated the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR in Richmond 2019we can tell you that the model is high on Kyle Larson, who makes a strong run at taking the checkered flag despite heading off at 25-1 NASCAR at Richmond odds.

Larson’s average finish at Richmond is 9.7, which is that the third-best among active drivers. He has finished seventh or better in four of the last five events at Richmond and won the Richmond autumn race in 2017. He’ll start in 14th place after a marginally slower than anticipated qualifying time of 123.54 MPH. However he posted the fastest lap (121.70 MPH) at the first practice session on Friday, so he’s revealed the rate needed to scale the NASCAR in Richmond leaderboard on Saturday evening.

And a huge shocker: Truex Jr., one of the top Vegas favorites in 6-1, doesn’t even crack the top five. There are far better worth in a loaded 2019 NASCAR in Richmond lineup.

The 39-year-old veteran is sitting at seventh in the standings, but he is tapered off recently. Truex finished 12th in Texas Motor Speedway and then struggled last week at Bristol, ending 17th. In his profession, Truex hasn’t fared well at Richmond Raceway either. In fact, he has finished in the top five only three times in 26 career starts at the monitor.

The model can also be targeting two additional drivers using 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds of 20-1 or even more time to make a serious run at winning it all. Anybody who backs these lengthy shots could hit it big.

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